Vancouver Read Estate Market

Vancouver is land-locked
Simply put, you can't build west (water), south (The USA), north (mountains, water pressure not strong enough), or east (agricultural reserved land). Therefore, our land supply is running out putting further pressure on prices.

Increased Migration
According to Statistics Canada net migration from other provinces [to BC] reached 2,600 people. Credit Union Central of B.C. forecasts that net inter-provincial migration to B.C. will increase this year and a net increase of 7,300 is expected in 2005.

For international migration, B.C saw a net increase of 29,600 people from other countries, up from 28,800 a year earlier and forecast to rise again this year. Real Estate values grow where people want to go. Vancouver is the number 1 city in the world. This will put further pressure on real estate prices.

B.C. has Record Breaking Oil and Gas Revenues
B.C.'s O&E 1.2 billion revenues are up from 436 million four years ago and out pace all stumpage fees ($425 million) and all corporate income tax ($498 million). (JREI predicts that "you ain’t seen anything yet, baby" as the world looks for more and more places with guaranteed peaceful supply.)

B.C. Leads Canada in Job Growth
B.C. created another 1,200 new jobs in July, bringing the total number of jobs created since December 2001 to 169,000. Since December 2001 employment in B.C. has increased 8.7% – the strongest gain in Canada, and well ahead of the national average of 6.3% over the same period. (Statistics Canada, Aug. 06, 2004)

B.C. Exports Gaining Strength
B.C. exports jumped almost 24% in June compared to June 2003. Year-to-date, exports are up 6.7%, on par with the national increase for the first half of 2004. Much of the export growth so far this year is due to the 17% gain in forestry product exports. (Stats Can, BC Stats August 13, 2004)

Record Building Permits Strongest in Canada
The value of building permits issued in B.C. in the first half of 2004 totaled a record $4.15 billion, an increase of 41.4% over the same period in 2003 – the strongest increase in Canada and more than four times the national average of 9.4% growth. (Statistics Canada, August 9, 2004)

B.C. Forecast to Lead in Housing Start Growth
B.C. will have the strongest increase in housing starts in Canada during 2004, according to a new CMHC forecast. CMHC expects new housing starts in B.C. to increase 21.1% this year, which is the strongest in the country. B.C. is also forecast to be the only province where housing starts will continue to increase in 2005. (CMHC, Aug. 04, 2004)

B.C. Ports Expanding
A state-of-the-art port expansion worth $500 million will be built in Prince Rupert over the next five years and operated by New Jersey-based Maher Terminals Inc. The provincial government has committed more than $17 million to the project. Meanwhile, shipments at the Port of Vancouver were up 16% in the first half of this year from the same period in 2003. The Port of Vancouver is planning a $1 billion expansion of its Delta port terminal starting in 2006. (Port of Vancouver, July 2004)

B.C. University Enrolment Highest in Canada
B.C. had the highest increase in university enrolment from 2000/01 to 2001/02 – up 7% vs. the national average of 4.3%. Full-time enrolment in BC jumped 11.1%, again the highest in Canada and more than double the national rise of 4.7%. (Statistics Canada, July 30, 2004)

Retail Sales Second Strongest in Canada in May - June - July
Retail sales in B.C. grew as the second highest rate in the country in May/June/July. In May B.C.’s 7.4% increase was well ahead of the 4.6% national average. In July BC’s 8.2% increase outpaced Ontario’s .09%, Quebec’s 4.4% and Saskatchewan’s 5.5% handily. Only Alberta outpaced BC in July at 9.2%. (Statistics Canada)

British Columbians Pay Less in Personal Taxes
Personal taxes made up 18.1% of household spending for British Columbians in 2002 – well below the national average of 20% and lower than in Alberta and Ontario. (BC Stats, July 23, 2004)

B.C. Economy Outpacing Forecast
As JREI mentioned at every outlook conference, all forecasts for BC erred on the downside for the last 4 years! Now the continued strong recovery of B.C.’s business investments and exports may result in the province’s economy outpacing current forecasts for 2004, according to the Business Council of B.C. The Council points to the fact that spending on non-residential buildings was at its highest level in six years and B.C.’s international exports were at their highest monthly levels since 2001 as evidence of B.C.’s growing strength. (Business Council of B.C., “B.C. Economic Snapshot” July 2004)

Forecast Shows B.C. to Lead Canada in 2005
B.C. will have the highest economic performance among the ten provinces in 2005, according to TD’s Regional Economic Outlook report. Growth of 4.1% is forecast for B.C., with a national average of 3.5%. (TD Economics, “Regional Economic Outlook,” July 22, 2004)

B.C.’s Economy to Continue Outpacing National Growth
B.C.’s economy is gearing up according to the Canada West Foundation. The foundation’s report cites rebounding exports and solid employment growth over the past year; as well as increased business and labour confidence. Canada West forecasts continued economic growth for B.C. in 2004 and 2005, with growth rates above the national average. (Canada West Foundation, “Out of the Ashes: B.C.’s Economy in 2004,” July 2004)

Record-Breaking Home Sales Continue
B.C.’s record setting home sales continued in June, contributing to a 34% increase in the value of homes sold in the first half of 2004 compared to the same period last year. The number of properties sold across the province is up 17.5% for the first half of the year. (BC Real Estate Association, July 16, 2004)

Non-Residential Construction Investment Strong
Investment in non-residential building construction was up 3.7% in the second quarter of 2004 compared with first quarter - the second-largest increase of all provinces and more than 7 times the national increase of 0.5%. (Statistics Canada, July 12, 2004)

B.C. Housing Starts Remain Strong
Housing starts across BC in the first half of the year were up 46.5% over the same period last year. According to CMHC’s second quarter Housing Outlook report, B.C. is expected to have the highest percentage growth in housing starts in Canada this year. (CMHC, May 10 & July 09, 2004)

B.C. Leads Country in Wage Rate
B.C. has the highest percentage of people earning $16 or more an hour in Canada. Nearly one million, or 57.2%, of employees in B.C. earn $16 or more per hour - the amount Statistics Canada says will support a family of four in an urban centre. In addition, since 2001 B.C. has had the largest percentage increase in jobs in Canada. (Ministry of Skills Development and Labour, July 6, 2004)

B.C. Businesses Most Optimistic in Canada
B.C.'s small and mid-sized enterprises lead the country in optimism, according to CFIB’s latest quarterly survey. B.C. is ahead of the national index for the third quarter in a row - 118.2 points vs. 106.4 nationally - and its highest level since CFIB began regular quarterly reporting of business expectations. (Canadian Federation of Independent Business, June 2004)

Final Major Point

We haven’t mentioned: A generally older and wealthier population (who will leave its wealth to the upcoming one). Or large foreign investment in real estate, largest portion of inward foreign migration, a shift from east to west inter-provincial migration, Olympic construction (1 billion plus) starting next year, the fact that we have water a 'plenty, or dare I say offshore exploration … and the mountains, the oceans, the view.

British Columbia is at the start of the best economic performance in over a decade (see the lead story in this month's newsletter BC FIRING ON ALL CYLINDERS). People are still moving into the province, employment is rising and the forestry, mining and oil and gas sectors are posting the best growth numbers in over a decade. Even tourism is up.

Now is the time to be getting ahead of the market. Now is the time to be scouting out those best buys. And they are out there.

by Ozzie Jurock, Vancouver Real Estate Titan

Click on the graph below to get an idea of Vancouver Real Estate market long term. Note that because of geographical restrictions the Vancouver market is very unique.

Migration and the increase in house values for 2004

Ozzie Jurock, April 3rd, 2004

According to Statistics Canada net migration from other provinces [to BC] reached 1,600 people, following a net increase of 2,600 in the third quarter of last year.

Much of the population flow is from Ontario and it appears to continue. Credit Union Central of B.C. forecasts that net inter-provincial migration to B.C. will increase this year and a net increase of 7,300 is expected in 2005.

The forecasts for migration from other provinces must be added to the increase in international migration. Last year B.C saw a net increase of 29,600 people from other countries, up from 28,800 a year earlier and forecast to rise again this year.

MAJOR POINT: The inflow will accelerate as B.C. continues to attract immigrants, workers, investors and retirees. Also, more and more construction trades will be needed as we gear up for Olympic construction and government projects next year. Real Estate values grow where people want to go. Vancouver is the number 1 city in the world. This may put further pressure on real estate prices. NOW is the time to get ahead of the wave. Shop carefully and buy this year.